Sub-Matrix Factorization for Real-Time Vote Prediction

We address the problem of predicting aggregate vote outcomes (e.g., national) from partial outcomes (e.g., regional) that are revealed sequentially. We combine matrix factorization techniques and generalized linear models (GLMs) to obtain a flexible, efficient, and accurate algorithm. This algorithm works in two stages: First, it learns representations of the regions from high-dimensional historical data. Second, it uses these representations to fit a GLM to the partially observed results and to predict unobserved results. We show experimentally that our algorithm is able to accurately predict the outcomes of Swiss referenda, U.S. presidential elections, and German legislative elections. We also explore the regional representations in terms of ideological and cultural patterns. Finally, we deploy an online Web platform (www.predikon.ch) to provide real-time vote predictions in Switzerland and a data visualization tool to explore voting behavior. A by-product is a dataset of sequential vote results for 330 referenda and 2196 Swiss municipalities.

We further present insightful low-dimensional representations of the voting data. Swiss referenda allow to cluster regions by spoken language and in some cases even by canton. In the German data that is available from 1990, the historical East-West is still clearly visible in the data.